Re: Land and cattle prices.

From: Trevor Mills (trevm@tpg.com.au)
Date: Thu Feb 02 2006 - 20:54:18 EST


This is a multi-part message in MIME format.

--Boundary_(ID_hXpYB5RgeFST0T4g+oueFA)
Content-type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-transfer-encoding: quoted-printable

Well put Vikki and spot on. Also from what I see around here land price =
increases have nothing to do with the profitability or otherwise of =
dairy farming. If you were to be realistic about land prices for dairy =
farming they would need to be about half what they are now.

As for Tim's point on cattle prices rising, I think he needs to get out =
to a few more dairy sales. I have been dairy farming for the past 9 =
years and I have never reared any of my own replacements I always =
purchase what I need generally 2yr old heifers. In those nine years I =
have paid an average of between $600 - $750 a head for my replacements. =
In other words the price of cattle hasn't changed much in those 9 years. =
Sure you can go to some dairy sales and pay $1500 a head for cows and =
people think the dairy cattle market is on fire. But the reality is =
somewhat different, like I said in my last email, it all comes down to =
averages.=20
Just for the record in case people are wondering, I have always made a =
profit from my dairy farm. But I pity any young person trying to make a =
start in the industry. Anyone who sits down with a calculator will soon =
realise that any profit you make from dairying will barely be enough to =
meet all you repayments as well as living costs, and forget about =
improvements around the farm.

Trevor Mills

----- Original Message -----=20
  From: vikki templeton=20
  To: vicdairy-l@unimelb.edu.au=20
  Sent: Thursday, February 02, 2006 6:59 PM
  Subject: Re: Land and cattle prices.

  Hello all,

  Just on Tim's point on land values and cattle prices.

  The higher price of land has allowed a lot of farmers to at least walk =
away from the industry with some money in their pockets. It also means =
that the new owner of that property has to also get another 30% return =
on his investment from the same farm that the last fella struggled to =
justify keeping on it's value.

  That is for a $1,000,000 farm to be viable against bank interest, it =
needs to generate at least $60,000 return at 6%. The new farmer, same =
farm, now worth $1,300,000 has to generate a return of investment of =
$78,000. Pretty hard task when costs keep rising no matter how efficient =
the new farmer is, for that farm to generate another $18,000 to justify =
its worth as a business.

  In regards to cattle prices lifting, is probably due to the lack of =
replacements, thanks to the export job.

  What is going to happen when that nice little side order is no longer =
going to be available as an income prop?

  Thanks

  Vikki

  =20

  =20

--Boundary_(ID_hXpYB5RgeFST0T4g+oueFA)
Content-type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-transfer-encoding: quoted-printable

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML xmlns=3D"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40" xmlns:o =3D=20
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w =3D=20
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word"><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3DWord.Document name=3DProgId>
<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2900.2802" name=3DGENERATOR>
<META content=3D"Microsoft Word 11" name=3DOriginator><LINK=20
href=3D"cid:filelist.xml@01C6282A.C25CFFD0" rel=3DFile-List><!--[if gte =
mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
  <o:DoNotRelyOnCSS/>
 </o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <w:WordDocument>
  <w:Zoom>110</w:Zoom>
  <w:DontDisplayPageBoundaries/>
  <w:SpellingState>Clean</w:SpellingState>
  <w:GrammarState>Clean</w:GrammarState>
  <w:DocumentKind>DocumentEmail</w:DocumentKind>
  <w:EnvelopeVis/>
  <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
  <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
  <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
  <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
  <w:Compatibility>
   <w:BreakWrappedTables/>
   <w:SnapToGridInCell/>
   <w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
   <w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
   <w:UseWord2002TableStyleRules/>
  </w:Compatibility>
  <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel>
 </w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState=3D"false" LatentStyleCount=3D"156">
 </w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]-->
<STYLE>@page Section1 {size: 595.3pt 841.9pt; margin: 72.0pt 90.0pt =
72.0pt 90.0pt; mso-header-margin: 35.4pt; mso-footer-margin: 35.4pt; =
mso-paper-source: 0; }
P.MsoNormal {
        FONT-SIZE: 12pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; =
mso-style-parent: ""; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; =
mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"
}
LI.MsoNormal {
        FONT-SIZE: 12pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; =
mso-style-parent: ""; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; =
mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"
}
DIV.MsoNormal {
        FONT-SIZE: 12pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; =
mso-style-parent: ""; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; =
mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"
}
A:link {
        COLOR: blue; TEXT-DECORATION: underline; text-underline: single
}
SPAN.MsoHyperlink {
        COLOR: blue; TEXT-DECORATION: underline; text-underline: single
}
A:visited {
        COLOR: purple; TEXT-DECORATION: underline; text-underline: single
}
SPAN.MsoHyperlinkFollowed {
        COLOR: purple; TEXT-DECORATION: underline; text-underline: single
}
SPAN.EmailStyle17 {
        COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-style-type: =
personal-compose; mso-style-noshow: yes; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; =
mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial
}
SPAN.GramE {
        mso-style-name: ""; mso-gram-e: yes
}
DIV.Section1 {
        page: Section1
}
</STYLE>
<!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
 /* Style Definitions */=20
 table.MsoNormalTable
        {mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
        mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
        mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
        mso-style-noshow:yes;
        mso-style-parent:"";
        mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
        mso-para-margin:0cm;
        mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
        mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
        font-size:10.0pt;
        font-family:"Times New Roman";
        mso-ansi-language:#0400;
        mso-fareast-language:#0400;
        mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style>
<![endif]--></HEAD>
<BODY lang=3DEN-AU style=3D"tab-interval: 36.0pt" vLink=3Dpurple =
link=3Dblue=20
bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Well put Vikki and spot on. Also from =
what I see=20
around here land price increases have nothing to do with the =
profitability or=20
otherwise of dairy farming.&nbsp;If you were to be realistic about land =
prices=20
for dairy farming they would need to be about half what they are=20
now.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>As for Tim's point on cattle prices =
rising, I think=20
he needs to get out to a few more dairy sales. I have been dairy farming =
for the=20
past 9 years and I have never reared any of my own replacements&nbsp;I=20
always&nbsp;purchase what I need generally 2yr old heifers.&nbsp;In =
those nine=20
years I have paid an average of between&nbsp;$600 - $750 &nbsp;a head =
for my=20
replacements. In other words the price of cattle hasn't changed much in =
those 9=20
years. Sure you can go to some dairy sales and pay $1500 a head for cows =
and=20
people think the dairy cattle market is on fire. But the reality is =
somewhat=20
different, like I said in my last email, it all comes down to averages.=20
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Just for the record in case people are =
wondering, I=20
have always made a profit from my dairy farm. But I pity any young =
person trying=20
to make a start in the industry. Anyone who sits down with a calculator =
will=20
soon realise that any profit you make from dairying will barely be =
enough to=20
meet all you repayments as well as living costs, and forget about =
improvements=20
around the farm.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Trevor Mills</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A title=3Dvtempleton@iprimus.com.au=20
  href=3D"mailto:vtempleton@iprimus.com.au">vikki templeton</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dvicdairy-l@unimelb.edu.au=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:vicdairy-l@unimelb.edu.au">vicdairy-l@unimelb.edu.au</A> =
</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, February 02, =
2006 6:59=20
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Land and cattle=20
prices.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV class=3DSection1>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Hello =

  all,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Just =
on Tim=92s=20
  point on land values and cattle prices.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">The =
higher=20
  price of land has allowed a lot of farmers to at least walk away from =
the=20
  industry with some money in their pockets. It also means that the new =
owner of=20
  that property has to also get another 30% return on his investment =
from the=20
  same farm that the last fella struggled to justify keeping on <SPAN=20
  class=3DGramE>it=92s</SPAN> value.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">That =
is for a=20
  $1,000,000 farm to be viable against bank <SPAN =
class=3DGramE>interest,</SPAN>=20
  it needs to generate at least $60,000 return at 6%. The new farmer, =
same farm,=20
  now worth $1,300,000 has to generate a return of investment of =
$78,000. Pretty=20
  hard task when costs keep rising no matter how efficient the new =
farmer is,=20
  for that farm to generate another $18,000 to justify its worth as a=20
  business.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">In =
regards to=20
  cattle prices lifting, is probably due to the lack of replacements, =
thanks to=20
  the export job.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">What =
is going=20
  to happen when that nice little side order is no longer going to be =
available=20
  as an income prop?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Thanks<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Vikki<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes">&nbsp;</SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY>=
</HTML>

--Boundary_(ID_hXpYB5RgeFST0T4g+oueFA)--



This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Mar 07 2006 - 02:38:03 EST