Hello all
Despite farmers leaving the industry and milk production remaining static
the thing that suprises me at the moment is that prices for well improved
and well positioned dairy land in western victoria has increased 25/30% in
the last 18 months (the demand from blue gums is only a small factor in
this). Like wise cow prices have generally doubled in most areas. Confident
people are out there.
I agree Trevor that a lot more is expected of farmers these days and the
pace of change (in all aspects of life) increases. That said growing grass,
using it efficiently and feeding cows to their potential are not new
concepts, yet if combined with tight cash flow management will produce a
good profit in most years, which is all you can expect in any business.
Cheers
Tim Bligh
Suncorp
Warrnambool Vic
Ph 03 5561 6940
Fax 03 5561 5693
M 0410 529 834
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Trevor Mills [SMTP:trevm@tpg.com.au]
> Sent: Tuesday, 31 January 2006 13:02
> To: vicdairy-l@unimelb.edu.au
> Subject: Re: Dairying
>
> Hi All
>
> Interesting discussion so far, in that as far as I am concerned everyone
> who
> has replyed so far have very valid points. But the fact is there is a
> rapid
> exodus from the dairy industry, and while it may have abated somewhat
> compared to recent years it has not stopped. I have no doubt that if we
> were
> to see any sort of drop in milk prices for the coming season then the
> flood
> gates will once again open.
>
> So why is it happening. Rather than analysing the price of milk compared
> to
> the price of production etc, I prefer to try and keep it a little more
> simple than that.
>
> I believe it all comes down to averages. In any business whether its dairy
>
> farming or someone running a business in town, you have the average
> business
> operator. On one side of the average you have your poor operators who will
>
> probably always struggle to succeed and on the other side you have the
> elite
> operators who will probably always succeed. But it is the average that
> make
> up the largest percentage and they are the ones who keep an industry
> healthy
> and viable. The problem we are now facing is that the average dairy farmer
>
> is really struggling to make ends meet.
>
> The reason for this I believe is that the bar is being moved to high too
> fast and the average dairy farmer is being left behind. If you try to
> push
> the all the average farmers into the elite catergory then you will be
> doomed
> to failure. Not everyone is capable for whatever reason of becoming an
> elite
> athlete just as not everyone is capable of become an elite farmer. Over
> time
> with better education and knowledge the average will get better, but so
> will
> the elite, therefore the average farmer will never catch the elite.
>
> What we have happening now is that instead of the bar being moved up in
> small increments which the average farmer may be able to adjust to, we
> find
> that the bar is being cranked up at a rapid rate and less and less farmers
>
> are able to make the adjustment.
>
> There are many reasons for this happening, the global economy being one of
>
> them. But the milk factories, dairy education system and dairy research
> facilities have been for as long as I can remember been pushing the
> "produce
> more" barrow at a rate which is difficult for the average farmer to keep
> up
> with. What we need is slower approach, yes produce more, but lets do it at
> a
> slower rate and in an economically viable way in which the average farmer
> can cope with.
>
> This approach with have now, of keep up, out or get out, is not helping
> anyone and is just putting enormous pressure on an industry which needs
> less
> pressure, not more.
>
> Keep those emails rolling, vicdairy-l has been to quite for to long.
>
> Regards,
> Trevor Mills
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